Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.

Demographic and spatially explicit landscape genomic analyses in a tropical oak reveal the impacts of late Quaternary climate change on Andean montane forests.

The tropical Andes are one of the most important biodiversity hotspots on Earth, yet our understanding of how their biotas have responded to Quaternary climatic oscillations is extraordinarily limited and the alternative models proposed to explain their demographic dynamics have been seldom formally evaluated. Here, we test the hypothesis that the interplay between the spatial configuration of geographical barriers to dispersal and elevational displacements driven by Quaternary cooling-warming cycles has shaped the demographic trajectories of montane oak forests (Quercus humboldtii) from the Colombian Andes. Specifically, we integrate genomic data and environmental niche modelling at fine temporal resolution to test competing spatially explicit demographic and coalescent models, including scenarios considering (i) isotropic gene flow through the landscape, (ii) the hypothetical impact of contemporary barriers to dispersal (i.e., inter-Andean valleys), and (iii) distributional shifts of montane oak forests from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Although our data revealed a marked genetic fragmentation of montane oak forests, statistical support for isolation-with-migration models indicates that geographically separated populations from the different Andean Cordilleras regularly exchange gene flow. Accordingly, spatiotemporally explicit demographic analyses supported a model of flickering connectivity, with scenarios considering isotropic gene flow or currently unsuitable habitats as persistent barriers to dispersal providing a comparatively worse fit to empirical genomic data. Overall, these results emphasize the role of landscape heterogeneity on shaping spatial patterns of genomic variation in montane oak forests, rejecting the hypothesis of genetic continuity and supporting a significant impact of Quaternary climatic oscillations on their demographic trajectories.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation.

Approximately 2.5 × 106 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Local stakeholder perceptions of forest degradation: Keys to sustainable tropical forest management.

Land use policies and planning in Latin America have been partially successful in halting deforestation yet have not stopped forest degradation. Here, we study the different stakeholders' perspectives of the drivers of forest degradation. We use Colombia as a case study for understanding synergies and trade-offs of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and analyzed what the most important causes are, to whom it matters, and their regional contribution. We identified a common perception, but miscommunication and misunderstandings occur between local- and national-level actors in terms of their views on responsibilities and rates of change. The results are a call for action. Cross-scale governance is necessary to improve the design and implementation of policies for forest management at the subnational and local levels and to ensure that we move toward sustainable development without worsening existing inequalities. It is essential that countries provide the enabling conditions to develop a coherent governing framework.

Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity.

Reducing deforestation underpins global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, this focus on retaining forest cover overlooks the multitude of anthropogenic pressures that can degrade forest quality and imperil biodiversity. We use remotely sensed indices of tropical rainforest structural condition and associated human pressures to quantify the relative importance of forest cover, structural condition and integrity (the cumulative effect of condition and pressures) on vertebrate species extinction risk and population trends across the global humid tropics. We found that tropical rainforests of high integrity (structurally intact and under low pressures) were associated with lower likelihood of species being threatened and having declining populations, compared with forest cover alone (without consideration of condition and pressures). Further, species were more likely to be threatened or have declining populations if their geographic ranges contained high proportions of degraded forest than if their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but of high quality. Our work suggests that biodiversity conservation policies to preserve forest integrity are now urgently required alongside ongoing efforts to halt deforestation in the hyperdiverse humid tropics.

Connectivity conservation at the crossroads: protected areas versus payments for ecosystem services in conserving connectivity for Colombian carnivores.

Protected areas (PAs) constitute one of the main tools for global landscape conservation. Recently, payments for environmental services (PES) have attracted interest from national and regional governments and are becoming one of the leading conservation policy instruments in tropical countries. However, the degree to which areas designated for PES overlap with areas that are critical for maintaining species' landscape connectivity is rarely evaluated. We estimated habitat distributions and connectivity for 16 of the 22 mammalian carnivores occurring in the Caribbean region of Colombia, and identified the overlap between existing PAs and areas identified as being important for connectivity for these species. We also evaluated the potential impact of creation of new PAs versus new PES areas on conserving connectivity for carnivores. Our results show that PAs cover only a minor percentage of the total area that is important for maintaining connectivity ( x = 26.8 % ± 20.2 s . d . ). On the other hand, PES, if implemented extensively, could contribute substantially to mammalian carnivores' connectivity ( x = 45.4 % ± 12.8 s . d . ). However, in a more realistic scenario with limited conservation investment in which fewer areas are set aside, a strategy based on implementing new PAs seems superior to PES. We argue that prioritizing designation of new PAs will be the most efficient means through which to maintain connectivity.

Fire-induced loss of the world's most biodiverse forests in Latin America.

Fire plays a dominant role in deforestation, particularly in the tropics, but the relative extent of transformations and influence of fire frequency on eventual forest loss remain unclear. Here, we analyze the frequency of fire and its influence on postfire forest trajectories between 2001 and 2018. We account for ~1.1% of Latin American forests burnt in 2002-2003 (8,465,850 ha). Although 40.1% of forests (3,393,250 ha) burned only once, by 2018, ~48% of the evergreen forests converted to other, primarily grass-dominated uses. While greater fire frequency yielded more transformation, our results reveal the staggering impact of even a single fire. Increasing fire frequency imposes greater risks of irreversible forest loss, transforming forests into ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to degradation. Reversing this trend is indispensable to both mitigate and adapt to climate change globally. As climate change transforms fire regimes across the region, key actions are needed to conserve Latin American forests.

How fire interacts with habitat loss and fragmentation.

Biodiversity faces many threats and these can interact to produce outcomes that may not be predicted by considering their effects in isolation. Habitat loss and fragmentation (hereafter 'fragmentation') and altered fire regimes are important threats to biodiversity, but their interactions have not been systematically evaluated across the globe. In this comprehensive synthesis, including 162 papers which provided 274 cases, we offer a framework for understanding how fire interacts with fragmentation. Fire and fragmentation interact in three main ways: (i) fire influences fragmentation (59% of 274 cases), where fire either destroys and fragments habitat or creates and connects habitat; (ii) fragmentation influences fire (25% of cases) where, after habitat is reduced in area and fragmented, fire in the landscape is subsequently altered because people suppress or ignite fires, or there is increased edge flammability or increased obstruction to fire spread; and (iii) where the two do not influence each other, but fire interacts with fragmentation to affect responses like species richness, abundance and extinction risk (16% of cases). Where fire and fragmentation do influence each other, feedback loops are possible that can lead to ecosystem conversion (e.g. forest to grassland). This is a well-documented threat in the tropics but with potential also to be important elsewhere. Fire interacts with fragmentation through scale-specific mechanisms: fire creates edges and drives edge effects; fire alters patch quality; and fire alters landscape-scale connectivity. We found only 12 cases in which studies reported the four essential strata for testing a full interaction, which were fragmented and unfragmented landscapes that both span contrasting fire histories, such as recently burnt and long unburnt vegetation. Simulation and empirical studies show that fire and fragmentation can interact synergistically, multiplicatively, antagonistically or additively. These cases highlight a key reason why understanding interactions is so important: when fire and fragmentation act together they can cause local extinctions, even when their separate effects are neutral. Whether fire-fragmentation interactions benefit or disadvantage species is often determined by the species' preferred successional stage. Adding fire to landscapes generally benefits early-successional plant and animal species, whereas it is detrimental to late-successional species. However, when fire interacts with fragmentation, the direction of effect of fire on a species could be reversed from the effect expected by successional preferences. Adding fire to fragmented landscapes can be detrimental for species that would normally co-exist with fire, because species may no longer be able to disperse to their preferred successional stage. Further, animals may be attracted to particular successional stages leading to unexpected responses to fragmentation, such as higher abundance in more isolated unburnt patches. Growing human populations and increasing resource consumption suggest that fragmentation trends will worsen over coming years. Combined with increasing alteration of fire regimes due to climate change and human-caused ignitions, interactions of fire with fragmentation are likely to become more common. Our new framework paves the way for developing a better understanding of how fire interacts with fragmentation, and for conserving biodiversity in the face of these emerging challenges.

A policy-driven framework for conserving the best of Earth's remaining moist tropical forests.

Tropical forests vary in composition, structure and function such that not all forests have similar ecological value. This variability is caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbance regimes, which influence the ability of forests to support biodiversity, store carbon, mediate water yield and facilitate human well-being. While international environmental agreements mandate protecting and restoring forests, only forest extent is typically considered, while forest quality is ignored. Consequently, the locations and loss rates of forests of high ecological value are unknown and coordinated strategies for conserving these forests remain undeveloped. Here, we map locations high in forest structural integrity as a measure of ecological quality on the basis of recently developed fine-resolution maps of three-dimensional forest structure, integrated with human pressure across the global moist tropics. Our analyses reveal that tall forests with closed canopies and low human pressure typical of natural conditions comprise half of the global humid or moist tropical forest estate, largely limited to the Amazon and Congo basins. Most of these forests have no formal protection and, given recent rates of loss, are at substantial risk. With the rapid disappearance of these 'best of the last' forests at stake, we provide a policy-driven framework for their conservation and restoration, and recommend locations to maintain protections, add new protections, mitigate deleterious human impacts and restore forest structure.

Pressures on La Lindosa, Guaviare: Land-Cover Change and Incidence of Fires Between 2012 and 2018 / Presiones ejercidas sobre la serranía de la lindosa, guaviare: cambios de cobertura e incidencia de fuegos entre 2012 y 2018

RESUMEN El cambio en el uso del suelo y el fuego como mecanismo utilizado para el mismo han creado perturbaciones ecológicas a grandes escalas, como lo son la fragmentación y aislamiento de ecosistemas importantes en paisajes tropicales. En el presente estudio, analizamos los cambios de uso del suelo entre los años 2012-2016 y los eventos de fuego entre los años 2016-2018, para identificar la dinámica de cambio espaciotemporal en la Serranía de la Lindosa, Guaviare, a partir de información oficial y sensores remotos. Para 2016 la cobertura boscosa se redujo en un 17 % correspondiendo con el aumento de vegetación secundaria y pastizales en el área. Los focos de fuego detectados estuvieron concentrados en el noroeste y sureste de la serranía, puntos coincidentes en zonas de bosque primario y zonas de pastizal consolidadas. Estos resultados indican que existe un proceso activo de deforestación en la serranía, que fragmenta la matriz boscosa dejando parches de bosque aislados, lo cual tendría repercusiones sobre la biodiversidad allí presente. Asimismo, la sinergia entre dicho proceso y el uso de fuego se muestra como amenaza constante, a diferentes escalas, sobre los diferentes ecosistemas. Esta información se presenta como herramienta para elaborar estrategias puntuales para evitar mayores repercusiones negativas sobre la serranía, que actualmente se encuentra en estado vulnerable.

ABSTRACT The change in land use and fire as a mechanism used for this change, have created ecological disturbances at large scales, such as the fragmentation and isolation of essential ecosystems within tropical landscapes. In the present study, we analyze the land-use changes along 2012-2016 and fire events between 2016-2018, to identify the dynamics of spatial-temporal change in the Serranía La Lindosa, Guaviare using official information and remote sensors. Forest cover was reduced by 17 %, during 2012-2016, corresponding to an increase in secondary vegetation and pastures in the area. The fire-hotspots detected were concentrated on the northwest and southeast of the mountain range, coinciding with areas of primary forest and consolidated pasture areas. These results show that there is an active process of deforestation in La Lindosa, leaving a fragmented matrix and isolated forest patches, which would have repercussions on the local biodiversity. Besides, the synergy between this process and the use of fire, represent a constant threat, at different scales, on the different ecosystems. This information is presented as a resource to elaborate punctual strategies in order to avoid greater negative repercussions on the mountain range area, which is currently in a vulnerable state.

Fires in protected areas reveal unforeseen costs of Colombian peace.

Armed conflict, and its end, can have powerful effects on natural resources, but the influence of war and peace on highly biodiverse tropical forests remains disputed. We found a sixfold increase in fires in protected areas across biodiversity hotspots following guerrilla demobilization in Colombia, and a 52% increase in the probability of per-pixel deforestation within parks for 2018. Peace requires urgent shifts to include real-time forest monitoring, expand programmes to pay for ecosystem services at the frontier, integrate demobilized armed groups as staff of protected areas, and establish a domestic market for frontier deforestation permits.

Scenarios in tropical forest degradation: carbon stock trajectories for REDD.

BACKGROUND: Human-caused disturbance to tropical rainforests-such as logging and fire-causes substantial losses of carbon stocks. This is a critical issue to be addressed in the context of policy discussions to implement REDD+. This work reviews current scientific knowledge about the temporal dynamics of degradation-induced carbon emissions to describe common patterns of emissions from logging and fire across tropical forest regions. Using best available information, we: (i) develop short-term emissions factors (per area) for logging and fire degradation scenarios in tropical forests; and (ii) describe the temporal pattern of degradation emissions and recovery trajectory post logging and fire disturbance. RESULTS: Average emissions from aboveground biomass were 19.9 MgC/ha for logging and 46.0 MgC/ha for fire disturbance, with an average period of study of 3.22 and 2.15 years post-disturbance, respectively. Longer-term studies of post-logging forest recovery suggest that biomass accumulates to pre-disturbance levels within a few decades. Very few studies exist on longer-term (>10 years) effects of fire disturbance in tropical rainforests, and recovery patterns over time are unknown. CONCLUSIONS: This review will aid in understanding whether degradation emissions are a substantial component of country-level emissions portfolios, or whether these emissions would be offset by forest recovery and regeneration.

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia.

Does Plan B work? Home range estimations from stored on board and transmitted data sets produced by GPS-telemetry in the Colombian Amazon / ¿Funciona el plan B? Estimación de rango de hogar a partir de datos almacenados en instrumentos a bordo de animales y los obtenidos a partir de telemetría satelital de GPS en el Amazonas colombiano

Abstract:Telemetry based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) makes possible to gather large quantities of information in a very fine scale and work with species that were impossible to study in the past. When working with GPS telemetry, the option of storing data on board could be more desirable than the sole satellite transmitted data, due to the increase in the amount of locations available for analysis. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the retrieving of the collar unit makes satellite-transmitted technologies something to take into account. Therefore, differences between store-on-board (SoB) and satellite-transmitted (IT) data sets need to be considered. Differences between SoB and IT data collected from two lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris), were explored by means of the calculation of home range areas by three different methods: the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), the Fixed Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and the Brownian Bridges (BB). Results showed that SoB and IT data sets for the same individual were similar, with fix ranging from 63 % to 85 % respectively, and 16 m to 17 m horizontal errors. Depending on the total number of locations available for each individual, the home ranges estimated showed differences between 2.7 % and 79.3 %, for the 50 % probability contour and between 9.9 % and 61.8 % for the 95 % probability contour. These differences imply variations in the spatial coincidence of the estimated home ranges. We concluded that the use of IT data is not a good option for the estimation of home range areas if the collar settings have not been designed specifically for this use. Nonetheless, geographical representations of the IT based estimators could be of great help to identify areas of use, besides its assistance to locate the collar for its retrieval at the end of the field season and as a proximate backup when collars disappear. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (4): 1441-1450. Epub 2016 December 01.

Resumen:La telemetría basada en los sistemas de geopocisionamiento global (GPS) hace posible recopilar gran cantidad de información a escalas muy finas, y trabajar con especies imposibles de estudiar en el pasado. Al trabajar con telemetría de GPS, la opción de guardar información en la memoria interna del instrumento puede ser más deseable que sólo tener acceso a la información enviada vía satélite, debido a la mayor cantidad de localizaciones disponibles para analizar. No obstante, la incertidumbre de recuperar el collar hace que las tecnología de trasmisión vía satélite deba ser tenida en cuenta. Diferencias entre las bases de datos almacenadas en el collar (SoB) y las trasmitidas vía satélite (IT), recolectadas de dos individuos de Tapir de tierras bajas (Tapirus terrestris), son consideradas, en términos de las áreas de los rangos de hogar calculados con cada uno y mediante el uso de tres metodologías diferentes: Mínimo Polígono Convexo (MCP), Estimador de Densidad de Kernel Fijo (KDE) y los Puentes Brownianos (BB). Las bases de datos SoB e IT son similares, con tasas de acierto de localizaciones que oscilan entre 63 % to 85 % y errores horizontales de 16 m y 17 m respectivamente. Dependiendo del número total de localizaciones disponibles para cada individuo, los rangos de hogar estimados muestran diferencias entre 2.7 % y 79.3 %, para el contorno del 50 % de probabilidades, y entre 9.9 % y 61.8 % para el contorno del 95 % de probabilidades. Estas diferencias implican variaciones en la coincidencia espacial de los rangos de hogar estimados. Concluimos que el uso de la información trasmitida vía satélite no es una buena opción para la estimación de rangos de hogar, si la programción de los collares no ha sido diseñada específicamente para tal fin. Sin embargo, las representaciones geográficas de los estimados a partir de las bases de datos IT pueden ser de gran ayuda para la identificación de áreas de uso, además de su utilidad para la localización y recuperación de collares tras su liberación de los individuos monitoreados y como una base de datos de soporte en caso de pérdida del collar.

Does Plan B work? Home range estimations from stored on board and transmitted data sets produced by GPS-telemetry in the Colombian Amazon.

Telemetry based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) makes possible to gather large quantities of information in a very fine scale and work with species that were impossible to study in the past. When working with GPS telemetry, the option of storing data on board could be more desirable than the sole satellite transmitted data, due to the increase in the amount of locations available for analysis. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the retrieving of the collar unit makes satellite-transmitted technologies something to take into account. Therefore, differences between store-on-board (SoB) and satellite-transmitted (IT) data sets need to be considered. Differences between SoB and IT data collected from two lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris), were explored by means of the calculation of home range areas by three different methods: the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), the Fixed Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and the Brownian Bridges (BB). Results showed that SoB and IT data sets for the same individual were similar, with fix ranging from 63 % to 85 % respectively, and 16 m to 17 m horizontal errors. Depending on the total number of locations available for each individual, the home ranges estimated showed differences between 2.7 % and 79.3 %, for the 50 % probability contour and between 9.9 % and 61.8 % for the 95 % probability contour. These differences imply variations in the spatial coincidence of the estimated home ranges. We concluded that the use of IT data is not a good option for the estimation of home range areas if the collar settings have not been designed specifically for this use. Nonetheless, geographical representations of the IT based estimators could be of great help to identify areas of use, besides its assistance to locate the collar for its retrieval at the end of the field season and as a proximate backup when collars disappear.

Characteristics of natural salt licks located in the Colombian Amazon foothills.

Salt licks are key places for the ecological dynamics of wildlife communities around the world and are locations where animals develop geophagical behaviours. Geophagy is a method for animals to supplement their diets or facilitate their digestive processes and is related to the health of individuals and populations. This study characterises a series of salt licks located in the Colombian Amazon foothills and describes their structural, mineralogical and physicochemical properties, as well as the fauna that visit these locations. The results are analysed in reference to the geological characteristics of the study area and in relation to the role of the salt lick in the nutritional ecology of the Amazonian fauna. Located in the study area are two types of salt licks that are significantly different in composition. These salt licks are located in an area where young geological materials have been exposed. The characteristics of the salt licks supports the hypothesis that they are used to solve nutritional problems that result from herbivorous diets. The clear importance of salt licks in the ecology of several Amazonian animal species emphasises the need to prioritise conservation areas by maximising the complementarities of salt lick sites.

Landscape dynamics in northwestern Amazonia: an assessment of pastures, fire and illicit crops as drivers of tropical deforestation.

Many studies have identified drivers of deforestation throughout the tropics and, in most cases, have recognised differences in the level of threat. However, only a few have also looked at the temporal and spatial dynamics by which those drivers act, which is critical for assessing the conservation of biodiversity as well as for landscape planning. In this study, we analyse land cover change between 2000 and 2009 in north-western Colombian Amazonia to identify the interactions between the use of fire, cultivation of illicit crops and establishment of pastures, and their impacts on the loss of forest in the region. Yearly analyses were undertaken at randomly selected sample areas to quantify the average areas of transition of land cover types under different landscape compositions: forest-dominated mosaics, pasture mosaics, fire mosaics, and illicit crop mosaics. Our results indicate that despite the fact that forest areas were well-preserved, deforestation occurred at a low annual rate (0.06%). Conversion to pasture was the main factor responsible for forest loss (the area of pastures tripled within forest mosaics over 8 years), and this process was independent of the landscape matrix in which the forests were located. In fire mosaics, burning is a common tool for forest clearing and conversion to pasture. Thus, forests in fire mosaics were highly disturbed and frequently transformed from primary to secondary forests. The use of fire for illicit cropping was not detected, partly due to the small size of common illicit crops. Forest regeneration from pastures and secondary vegetation was observed in areas with large amounts of natural forest. Overall, assuming the continuation of the observed pasture conversion trend and the use of forest fire, we suggest that our results should be incorporated into a spatially explicit and integrated decision support tool to target and focus land-planning activities and policies.